On the morning of October 14, jointly sponsored by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, China Rubber Industry Association, China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Minmetals and Chemicals, and Rubber Valley Group Co., Ltd., the second China (Guangzhou) Rubber Industry Expo and the 2015 World Rubber Forum and Information Conference hosted by Guangzhou Yuntao Sleep Technology Co., Ltd. officially kicked off.
 
At the meeting, the vice president and secretary general of China Rubber Industry Association elaborated on the overall operation of China's rubber industry in 2015 and the 13th Five-Year Plan.
 


 

The following is a transcript of the speech:
 
Distinguished guests, it is a great honor to be here again. Before I make a formal report, I would like to have an interaction first, because this year I said that the industry is particularly bad. I think is there any company here today that is more profitable than last year? Raise your hand to indicate? If you raise your hand I can guess what you do, none of them raise their hands, I can talk about it casually in a moment.
 
The second question, has any representative here ever read the 12th Five-Year Plan compiled by our Rubber Industry Association? No, I don't know if the two topics I'm talking about today can meet your requirements. Everyone said it was not good. This year was too bad, very bad, worse than 2008. In fact, 2008 was not bad. In the situation of our rubber industry in the past ten years, 2009 was the best year for the entire rubber industry. What was the worst situation this year? The data is from January to July, because the PPT time was earlier at that time, but I did not make any changes and did not change it to the latest data from January to August, because the data from January to August are worse than the data from January to July, so I would like to share with you the main situation of the industry this year with the data from January to July.
 
This table is mainly four main economic data of the industry, one is the total industrial output value, one is the sales revenue, one is the export delivery value, and the other is the profit of the whole industry, but these data are year-on-year data, that is to say, the blue set of data is the growth rate of January-July 2014 and January-July 2013, and the red data is the year-on-year data of January-July 2015 and January-July 2014, we will not go into details later. We all know that all the tables are year-on-year data.
 
Through this table, we can clearly see that there is positive growth above the red coordinate and negative growth below the red coordinate. Under the relatively bleak situation in 2014, we still have two data. The industrial output value and profit are above the positive coordinate, that is, they have maintained positive growth. This year, it is really miserable. All the four data are negative growth. The negative growth is due to the more than 1300 members of the association we count, we have only counted 398 large and medium-sized important enterprises, so by industry, we can see that the industrial output value of the whole industry has dropped by 10.49 compared with last year. What other industries are worse than the level of the whole industry? Among them are our tires. The negative growth of tires is 13%, the negative growth of tube belts is 11%, and the negative growth of motorcycle tires and bicycle tires is 11.13. Just now I can say which industry you are in. The slightly better one is that the industrial output value of the products industry, rubber shoes industry and rubber mold industry has slightly increased compared with last year. This is the situation of industrial output value and the profits of all walks of life, according to our statistics this year, the profit margins of 398 industries fell by 22% last year, of which tires fell by 35% and carbon black fell by 53.75. Profits slightly better than last year are still products, latex industries and industries with comprehensive utilization of waste rubber. If life is slightly better this year, the possibility of producing rubber products will be greatly increased.
 
This chart is not a year-on-year situation, but the profit margin of the whole sub-industry. Everyone says it is quite good. The whole industry still has 5.13 per cent of the profit, but this is the profit from January to July, and the data from January to August is lower than this. In addition, in the whole industry, the profit margin of the products industry and the rubber mold industry is slightly higher, but the profit margin of tires has dropped to 3% points, carbon black is already less than 1%, and now everyone needs 7% of bank loans, so the whole industry is really very difficult this year. Let's talk about the tire industry, because the tire industry feels that the days are particularly difficult this year. Why? Among the 398 enterprises in our statistics, the inventory is 28.5 billion, of which the tire inventory is 18 billion, accounting for about 66% of the entire industry inventory. Therefore, the good and bad of the tire industry is directly related to the situation of China's rubber industry. We can see that its profit has dropped 36% compared with last year. I will not elaborate on the pipe and belt industry. The situation in these industries is both good and bad, we can see that some profits, such as latex, increased by 25% last year, but this year it has dropped by 6%. Last year's good year was worse, and last year's bad year was even worse. Everyone is analyzing the reasons. All economists are also analyzing the reasons, and there will be a meeting in Beijing soon. Experts say that it is because China's GDP growth rate is declining sharply, perhaps the reason for our bad economy mainly comes from GDP. Second, because our rubber industry is closely related to the automobile industry, the growth rate of the automobile industry has also slowed down. January-August is not good, January-September is good, it is estimated that January-October will be better, and I will be happy. This shows that our rubber industry may also usher in a turning point in January-October.
 
There is also a setback in exports. From 30% to 192 tax, 40% of our tires will have to increase so much tax on exports. What if we can't sell them to the United States? We are crowded in the EU market. There is no double reverse now, but the price cannot be sold. Because a large number of tires have hit Europe, everyone will fight a price war. What is the result? No one can make money, which is also an important reason for the very thin tire profits in the industry this year.
 
With so many years left, why is there excess capacity? Profits decline Since this chart shows the rapid doubling of our output from the 2.85 to the 2.65 from 2006 to 2014, this year's competition is fierce and profits are declining. There is also because the concentration of production capacity is too low, so bargaining power, research and development, raw material procurement may be every enterprise is doing research and development, duplication of work, but also delayed the progress of scientific research and technology.
 
Everyone hopes that the 13th Five-Year Plan will lead China's rubber industry to where? What's the use of drawing on paper? Many people have lost confidence in planning. I have checked on the Internet. Many people who are more radical about planning think that it is better to standardize planning in a pure market economy country. It is difficult to plan output, but it is very possible to standardize the development of the industry. The plan made by our association this time has made some changes in the 12th Five-Year Plan and put forward some new ideas, for example, the plan no longer emphasizes the growth of quantity. We emphasize the general idea of reform, that is, we should realize our rubber industry in China to a powerful country through the 13th five-year Plan, and plan it according to the goal of our powerful country strategy. This is the overall idea.
 
What transformation does the 13th Five-Year Plan bring to this industry? These eight words I think are very good, so I'm going to read it here, we through the 13th Five-Year Plan our first change is to hope that our rubber industry in China from big to strong transformation, the second is from perceptual development to rational development. The third is to adjust from output-oriented to quality-oriented. The fourth is that now we are more focused on product research, turning it into basic research. The fifth is the transformation from independent governance to industry associations. Many people abroad admire Japanese companies. If Japanese companies are united in market prices, they will conduct a coordination. At present, what we are doing at this point is mainly to fight price wars. We hope that the association can do some work during the 13th Five-Year Plan period to unite the industry. The sixth is from blind expansion to intensive synthetic development, from vicious competition to joint and collaborative competition, and the last one is high labor-intensive to green development.
 
How can we make these changes? President Fan once put forward several strategic measures, including ten automatic production lines to improve the rubber industry, and the intelligent manufacturing of the rubber industry will be completed by e-commerce mode. In addition, we need to protect new raw materials, improve the innovation mechanism of the rubber industry, and make full use of financial capital to help the intelligent transformation of the rubber industry. In addition, we need to establish the achievements of the Internet in other industries to accelerate the progress of intelligent manufacturing of the rubber industry, these are our ideas, results and safeguard measures, so we should also implement them in specific places. We have listed the goals of the 12th five-year Plan and the 13th five-year Plan for various industries and specialties. I will not say it one by one. This is a sub-industry, and each industry has specific indicators. How concentrated should I be? We can all make a clear statement in the 13th Five-Year Plan.
 
Finally, take tires as an example. For example, we passed the 13th Five-Year Plan. We hope that the tire concentration. For example, the sales of the top ten companies accounted for 44% can now be increased to 51%. This is a goal for them to work hard. We have already said that the planning is not as good as the specification. The most important specification for tires during the 13th Five-Year Plan is the tire labeling system, we hope to recommend implement China's green tires in China according to this time period, label our tires, and then promote the upgrading of the tire industry.
 
Just 15 minutes have arrived. The 13th Five-Year Plan is a bit fast, but on the 10.26-29 at the Xi 'an Standing Council, we will officially launch the 13th Five-Year Plan. The Standing Council will get it free of charge. There are specific situations. Today's talk is not detailed. We will communicate later during the tea break. Thank you for listening. Thank you!